On Science and Scientists, Climate change and the Public – who is thinking clearly?Just seen the results of this survey from Reuters. Of course we always need to take surveys with a pinch of salt, but I find the results of this particular survey (http://unhub.com/9Vmx) very interesting, particular about current opinions on Climate Change. The problems with surveys is they only leave us with more questions than provide any answers because they never seem to follow up and ask the really interesting things.First a summary of the survey results with respect to the ‘science’ of climate change:The survey says that “while 84 percent of scientists say the Earth is getting warmer because of human activity, less than half of the public agrees with that”.There are two things of interest to tease out from this. Firstly the ‘public’ view.Is it that the ‘public’ are in denial of the ‘science’ or is it that actually they don’t believe in the models that the scientists are using? Now it would be good to survey that. My money is on the fact that most of the public simply don’t believe the models. If so that would be very interesting as well to know why.The second thing of interest is the viewpoint of the scientists. This survey showed that 16% of the scientists surveyed did not believe the ‘science’. From what you read in the media I would have thought that it was fewer than 5% of scientists who did not agree with the interpretation of the ‘science’. Again it would be most interesting to know more about the scientists who are the ‘non-believers’So this survey would have been far more useful if we could have found out something about those ‘public’ that don’t believe the ‘science’ of climate change (or rather the way most scientists are interpreting the data). Are they all people who just want to go on decimating rain forests etc? Are they actually people (like myself) who want to stop burning fossil fuels and decimating the planet, but have no confidence in the models that scientists are using to predict the global effects?And the 16% of scientists that don’t believe the (interpretation of the) ‘science’? Are they all in the pocket of the energy companies? Or are they merely scientists who are concerned that the data is contradictory or selectively taken and the models are inadequate to make predictions?
On Science and Scientists, Climate change and the Public – who is thinking clearly?Just seen the results of this survey from Reuters. Of course we always need to take surveys with a pinch of salt, but I find the results of this particular survey (http://unhub.com/9Vmx) very interesting, particular about current opinions on Climate Change. The [...]
Thinking in Different Ways (2) Another way of thinking that may not be very helpful in a world full of ‘problems’ to solve is “Earth-around-the-Sun” thinking Earth around the Sun ThinkingThis type of thinking is more ‘logical’ and has wider applicability than ‘Crowing Cockerel Thinking’ or ‘Flat world Thinking’ mentioned in the last blog but [...]
Thinking in Different Ways (2)
Another way of thinking that may not be very helpful in a world full of ‘problems’ to solve is “Earth-around-the-Sun” thinking
Earth around the Sun ThinkingThis type of thinking is more ‘logical’ and has wider applicability than ‘Crowing Cockerel Thinking’ or ‘Flat world Thinking’ mentioned in the last blog but can be as dangerous and misleading as these first two ways of thinking. This way of thinking transfixes our assumptions about reality and about how ‘the world works‘ (so an alternative name might be ‘transfixed thinking’). This is also a thinking level that is ‘in the box’.So if you believe that the Earth orbits around the sun (as a complete and perfect manifestation of reality) then there is a danger that you see the sun as the centre of the universe (so you have simply moved from the theory of the earth as the centre, to the sun as the centre). With this way of thinking you may never get to consider how the sun (together with the earth) moves in relation to other systems and how those other systems may affect you.Seeing your model as ‘true’ may mean you ignore subtle effects that come from things outside of your model – like in the solar system analogy – the movement of other solar systems (larger elements but further away) or other elements (smaller but nearer) like our moon. And we know from chaos theory that a collection of subtle effects (a butterfly flapping its wings in Australia) can interact to give big effects.Side-tracking to Global Warming for a moment
The mention of ‘butterflies’ and chaos theory side-tracks me for a moment to Global Warming as an example where scientists are seen to be applying “Earth around the Sun Thinking”.
Despite the fact that both the moon (orbit changes in relationship to Earth) and the Sun (sunspot activity variation) are known to influence weather on planet Earth, I have yet to see a single computer projection that includes all such known relevant data in the calculations. This means that I personally can’t be led to believe any of the data projections on Global Warming. If you are thinking outside of existing accepted models of current reality, then it is logical to make absolutely sure that important weather factors like lunar orbit shifts and sunspot activity have been included in the computer modeling for these are (known) major contributors of both historical and current world temperature changes. Why should we believe any statistics or data that is so reductionist in its approach? (Incidentally I believe we should save our oil, gas and coal reserves for future needs and therefore we must seek alternative sources of energy – this is just plain sensible – and we should have been thinking about this a hundred years ago before Global Warming was a figment of anybody’s imagination.)
It is possible to identify a lot of bad decisions being made by Governments, Business, Economists, Financiers etc. around the world because they believe either in useless models or a flawed understanding of the limitations of the dataBack to the Thinking about Thinking
Earth-around-the-Sun Thinking is the ultimate ‘we know the truth’ thinking.It is the thinking that says ‘we have the complete picture’, ‘we are the experts’ and ‘we don’t need to listen to any new or alternative perspectives’. This stance becomes ‘my theory is true’ and then no counter-evidence can possibly be allowed to invalidate it.
The attitude that emanates from this way of thinking is the “If you try to convince me that there is something incomplete or wrong here, I will ignore all your evidence, and I will strongly defend my current belief”. We all defend our beliefs this is natural. The dangers arise when the beliefs we defend are very limited and very closed and we are simply not open to other possibilites.Earth-around-the-Sun Thinking is accepted and very prevalent in society today. This logical thinking level is a limited thinking level however, for whilst it is useful in the context of a single and important relationship (note: a reductionist relationship), it can be misleading in relation to the whole picture and may be missing many key influencing factors when it comes to applying the thinking for accurate predictions.In an era where our political leaders in particular seek and worship the results of expert assessments or computer predictions, we need to stay alert when the thinking that the ‘experts’ used to construct the formulas has failed to include important potential factors – making each and every prediction seriously flawed (Swine flu comes to mind here, I wonder why?).We have all heard about rubbish-in, rubbish-out, but how often are our most eminent leaders making predictions that will influence our well-being or waste our money from models that are flawed, or data that is of poor quality.Science and maths, and history – the list goes on, these are all littered with examples where important data (evidence) was left out when it did not fit the thinking (model). The reason ‘chaos theory’ was a late development in maths (so I have heard) was that for a long time it was known that certain mathematical data did not fit the existing theories, but this data was continually and deliberately overlooked. You see when people (the explorers) on the flat-plain of current thinking, travel out to its far reaches and say “I have seen beyond and this world isn’t flat”, all the Flat-World Thinkers gang up, or ‘group-think’, together and find arguments to ignore the data as an aberration. In fact they see the explorer as the aberration not the data.So Earth-around-the-Sun Thinking is only a slightly more sophisticated form of Flat World Thinking. For most, the former is the true way to think and the latter way is a false way. It may appear therefore that Earth-around-the-Sun Thinking is far superior to Flat World Thinking. However the Gods looking down on us from on high, see both levels of thinking as identical and flawed, as both models (can) obscure reality and both ways of thinking place restriction on the future potential of human beings and limit the possibility for creative thought and for new solutions.
“All models are wrong, some models are useful” George Box
To be creative is to be able to hold different possible models of reality at any one time and see the usefulness of them all.
‘Creatives’ observe and play with their models, they don’t live in their models nor believe them to be ‘true’.
We are all born creative beings. One of the things that sabotages this birthright is an education system where the focus is on right answers rather than useful answers. The way we currently do education therefore is to condition-out our ability to hold multiple ‘truths’ in our head at any one time. This is something to discuss elsewhere, however our education system is another example of the outcome from Earth-around-the-Sun Thinking applied thoughtlessly transfixing us to believe that education is about ‘dumping information in’ to heads and believing that we measure cleverness by how well students can get that dumped information back out again. (this is recall not learning). If this is cleverness we would never have seen the Fosbury Flop, the Photocopier, Michael Jackson’s Moon Walk, Einstein’s Theory of Relativity or indeed this blog.
Learning Point: Very few things are absolute or true, most things are actually only ‘true’ relative to other things. Two plus two does not always equal exactly four, parallel lines can meet, carbon dioxide is not the only thing to influence our weather!
SummaryFrom a Creativity perspective, the three levels of thinking outlined so far are illogical and unhelpful (and yet they arguably represent the way that most of us think). Next we’ll look at three levels of thinking that are absolutely required if we are to create new solutions to existing problems.
Coming Next:Ways of thinking that our human brain was actually wired to do?
Knowing the What and Knowing the WhyTo know the ‘what’ or ‘why’ about anything, we have to understand something about our current beliefs and how beliefs interact with how we think and what we think about. If you see yourself as a ‘Thought Leader” this is definitely the blog to be.This first post takes an [...]
Knowing the What and Knowing the WhyTo know the ‘what’ or ‘why’ about anything, we have to understand something about our current beliefs and how beliefs interact with how we think and what we think about. If you see yourself as a ‘Thought Leader” this is definitely the blog to be.This first post takes an initial look therefore at beliefs and thinking.Virtuous or Vicious Cycle in your Thinking?What we believe (our models, theories, assumptions) influences how we think and what we think about. Equally how we think and what we think about influences our beliefs. This process can either represent a virtuous cycle or a vicious cycle depending on whether the process is opening up or closing down the limits of our thinking (And believe it or not this interaction between thoughts and beliefs is so powerful it influences ‘how we see things’ so that what we actually see through our own eyes has less direct and immediate impact on our beliefs than we think – the idea that ‘seeing is believing’ is in fact rarely true for us)It is our models, beliefs, theories that we ‘hold’ in our head that help to make sense of the world around us. However we often fail to recognise that ‘that sense’ is not representative of a true reality but is a ‘best fit’ of reality as it has appeared to us so far in personal everyday experience.Every model can be true (useful) at some level (within its own often limited context).Harmful Models - Some models prove (demonstrate) to be harmful in that they generate actions, behaviours, systems, viewpoints that in the long term make matters worse rather than better. Theories about what is right or wrong, good or evil have led to destructive wars against people who are little different from ourselves except for the beliefs they hold.Helpful Models – Other models prove to be useful in the long term in that when the principles of the model are followed things consistently improve. In this blog we will be particularly interested in models and beliefs that have led to sustained improvement rather than holding a status quo or making matters worse. And of course we will need to keep an eye on what we mean (operational definition) by improvement as this is not always clear and can therefore can muddy our thinking.Models that broaden our reality - We should be aware that some models and beliefs will broaden our view of reality (like a wide-angle lens for photography). Such models will be particularly useful when we need to see the bigger picture or to see how things interact and connect together. Such models are also likely to be useful in times of rapid change when a broader model has more inherent flexibility in the thoughts that it allowsModels that constrict our reality – Other models may narrow or constrict our view of reality. These models may be useful when we need to be focused on the “where-we-are” and the “here-and-now”. However the danger with these models is that we can’t see further than the end of our nose, we can’t see the forest from the trees and we can’t see why and how mankind in general is making things on planet Earth worse not better. Also such models are likely to be a liability in times of rapid change where the here-and-now almost instantly becomes part of the back ‘there-and-then’.Next: Different ways of thinking.
A view on politicians - ”A politician thinks of the next election. A statesman, of the next generation.” ~ James Freeman Clarke.A view on Politics- ”Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other.” ~ Oscar AmeringerThis Blog: On the need [...]
A view on politicians - ”A politician thinks of the next election. A statesman, of the next generation.” ~ James Freeman Clarke.A view on Politics- ”Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other.” ~ Oscar AmeringerThis Blog: On the need for something different in PoliticsWe need something new and something completely different in Politics. Believing that tinkering with what we have will lead to something much better is madness. The current political system regardless of the ‘Party’ elected to power has consistently failed to do the job for which it was elected.Why is Government Failing?This could be due to several things. Firstly that ‘Government’ thinks it can control things that it cannot (and therefore will always under-deliver); (2) the thinking and assumptions about the ‘problems’ are wrong or the methods by which Government seek to implement their policies simply don’t work; or (3) that the system itself is the problem (the system is the one that embraces what we currently accept – Political Parties in charge (rather than independent thinkers), whips to maintain Party discipline and ideology regardless of consequences; ideological thinking tempered often only by charged polarised debate (or in the UK- the slanging match) as the best vehicle to find the new solutions to existing problems or (4) the system fails because we the voters either lack the knowledge or the wherewithal to canvas effectively for something better. This latter viewpoint incidently espoused by James Garfield “Now more than ever the people are responsible for the character of their Parliament. If that body be ignorant, reckless, and corrupt, it is because the people tolerate ignorance, recklessness, and corruption.” So perhaps rather than the politicians canvassing for our vote we need to canvas them about what we expect from them (and it certainly isn’t all those things we seem to have been getting and seeing recently)Could we dispense with Political Parties and still elect a Government?This blog will look at all the possible aspects of why the current system is failing us. The blog will look at some of the things we could do differently. Indeed we will explore whether we can dispense with political “Parties” all together. Would it be possible to elect, manage and orchestrate a Parliament filled with independent members? What knowledge, mechanisms, processes would need to be in place to allow this scenario to not only happen but succeed in doing better than what we currently have? If we actually need Parties, can we construct a Non-Political Party to promote different ways of doing things? Is the idea of a Non-Politcal Party an Oxymoron? What’s an Oxymoron?Can a Political Party Think the Unthinkable? Of course not! (not if it is truly ‘political’)One thing seems clear. Our existing Political Parties will not be able to make the drastic changes in thinking that are required to take society into a 21st Century where things actually improve rather than keep getting worse. Therefore there is a strong need for some new energy and ideas to come into Politics and ultimately there must be a real choice at the Ballot Box where individuals can place their vote with that person or Party that is singing from a different song-sheet. Most political parties would do most things the same in office; the differences are merely in the detail or in the method.Coming Next: How all the current main political Parties are actually 95% all the same and What is Politics anyway?